Following the 2011 Fukushima disaster, a strong anti-nuclear movement unjustly vilified advanced nuclear technologies. Within months of the massive earthquake and tsunami that led to the meltdown at the Japanese plant, Germany ordered a total phase-out of its 17 nuclear reactors. This biased view overshadowed the importance of nuclear power as a vital sustainable energy source in the battle against climate change.
Contrary to the safety concerns often cited by critics of nuclear energy, empirical analysis from Our World in Data starkly contrasts the safety record of nuclear energy with that of other fuel sources. Nuclear energy causes significantly fewer deaths compared to conventional fossil fuels: 99.8 percent fewer than coal and 99.7 percent fewer than oil, aligning closely with the safety records of wind and solar energy.
Nuclear energy frequently faces demonization due to “availability heuristics,” a behavioral science principle where judgments are based on readily recalled examples. This cognitive shortcut leads individuals to overestimate the likelihood of events that are more memorable. In the case of nuclear energy, the prominent instances of Chernobyl and Fukushima dominate public perception, skewing the understanding of its actual risks and overshadowing its potential benefits.
Fortunately, the world is now thinking beyond these two events. With US Climate Envoy John Kerry announcing a nuclear fusion strategy at COP28, nuclear energy is experiencing a significant resurgence. This shift signifies a major transformation in the energy discourse, recognizing nuclear power’s indispensable role in attaining sustainable energy objectives.
At COP28, more than 20 countries across four continents came together to sign a declaration toward tripling nuclear energy capacity globally. This declaration, supported by nations including the US, Ghana and the United Arab Emirates, acknowledges nuclear energy’s crucial contribution to achieving global net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and maintaining the target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
According to the IAEA’s Power Reactor Information System, at the end of 2022, the total net electrical capacity from nuclear energy stood at 370.99 gigawatts, and there were 411 operational reactors globally. The countries with the most net electrical capacity from nuclear are the US, France, China, Russia, South Korea and Canada. Apart from Russia, all these countries signed the declaration.
However, according to the World Nuclear Association, the most notable nuclear expansion is underway in countries not part of the declaration, with China (25), India (8), and Turkey (4) leading in the construction of new reactors. Similarly, the highest number of proposed reactors are in China (154), India (28), and Russia (21). These nations are pivotal in the anticipated tripling of nuclear energy by 2050, despite not being signatories to the declaration.
Regardless, the ambition to triple nuclear energy capacity is a challenging task with numerous complexities. This goal implies increasing nuclear energy’s contribution from 10 percent to nearly a third of the world’s electricity needs within 25 years.
Tripling nuclear power capacity will require constructing new large-scale and small modular reactors and navigating substantial financial and regulatory hurdles. Historically, nuclear projects have faced long construction delays and budget overruns.
Further, nuclear reactors in advanced economies average 35 years of age and face widespread shutdowns, with a quarter of the existing capacity projected to be offline by 2025 due to aging infrastructure. While extending a reactor’s life is more cost-effective than building a new one, challenging market conditions hinder such projects. Persistently low electricity prices have squeezed profits, making nuclear plants less viable for reinvestments. Consequently, the success of extending reactor lifespans hinges largely on specific economic conditions within each country.
For tripling nuclear energy capacity, energy transition in developing countries is critical, with nations outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development accounting for about 60 percent of global energy and electricity consumption in 2020. These countries have a high dependence on fossil fuels and are major contributors to global carbon dioxide emissions. Their energy requirements are expected to grow rapidly.
Restrictions on nuclear power remain in some countries, and the economic, political, and technical obstacles to scaling up can be considerable. Presently, less than 8 percent of existing reactors are in non-OECD countries, mainly in China and India, and these generate just 4.3 percent of total nuclear-powered electricity. This is projected to grow to 15 percent by 2030.
The long timelines and high costs associated with large reactor construction in these countries will prevent nuclear power from significantly increasing its share of electricity production in the near term. However, the emerging generation of small modular reactors (SMRs) offer more viable solutions in the longer term, from 2030 to 2050.
To really triple global nuclear power, the world, especially the developing world, will have to rely on SMRs. These reactors are more affordable, can be built in a factory and shipped to a site, and are easier to find locations for, given their smaller size.
These technologies are entering the demonstration phase in countries like the US, Canada, and the UK, and in cooperation with Japanese and South Korean companies, they offer new opportunities for nuclear power in developing countries, especially those with smaller electricity systems and limited resources.
SMRs can be built quickly and offer grid flexibility to complement intermittent renewables. Achieving economies of scale and securing financing from diverse sources will be crucial for their success and that of the transition away from fossil fuels.
Aditya Sinha is an Officer on Special Duty, Research, at the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India. X: @adityasinha004
