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Neil Hauer

Neil Hauer is a security analyst based in Tbilisi, Georgia. His work focuses on the Syrian conflict, particularly Russia’s role; politics and minorities in the South Caucasus; and violence and politics in the North Caucasus, particularly Chechnya and Ingushetia, where he conducts regular fieldwork. He previously served as senior intelligence analyst at The SecDev Group in Ottawa, Canada. He has consulted for the European Union and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on radicalization and security.

Articles By Neil Hauer

Putin Faces Mobilization Backlash in the North Caucasus By Neil Hauer - Oct 13, 2022

Vladimir Lenin once said, “there are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” The latter certainly seems to be the case in Russia today. As Vladimir Putin’s faltering invasion of Ukraine stumbles on, September saw one Rubicon crossed after another, beginning with the stunning rout of Russian forces in Ukraine’s Kharkiv oblast … Continue reading “Putin Faces Mobilization Backlash in the North Caucasus”

What Azerbaijan’s Armenia Assault Says About the New World Order By Neil Hauer - Sep 23, 2022

The latest round of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan will come as little surprise to most. After all, the two states have been locked in various levels of conflict for three decades, ranging from low-level exchanges of fire to the full-scale warfare that engulfed the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2020. Yet the latest bout marks a major escalation, one … Continue reading “What Azerbaijan’s Armenia Assault Says About the New World Order”

Russia’s Breaking Point in Ukraine May Be Closer Than We Think By Neil Hauer - May 11, 2022

Kyiv, Ukraine – To say that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan is hardly a novelty at this point. Two and a half months after Russian forces launched a full-scale assault on their southwestern neighbor, they have little to show for it. A six-week campaign to capture the capital Kyiv was abandoned in early April, with … Continue reading “Russia’s Breaking Point in Ukraine May Be Closer Than We Think”

The Two Wars Taking Place in Ukraine By Neil Hauer - Mar 19, 2022

Odessa, Ukraine – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been ongoing for a full three weeks now. That is already a military success in itself for Ukraine: Many analysts (and the Kremlin itself) expected that lightning Russian operations could score a victory within days. Ukraine’s dogged resistance, however, has changed the narrative. The war has been costly for Moscow with more than 1,300 … Continue reading “The Two Wars Taking Place in Ukraine”